Interview with IPCC scientist Geir Ottersen

I was so lucky that I got to interview climate and marine scientist Geir Ottersen from the Institute of Marine Research. In 2019, he was one of the main authors in the IPCC Special report on the oceans and cryosphere, in the chapter “Polar Regions”.

IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Following are some highlights from our conversation; how did you work on your chapter “Polar regions”? Were you out in the field?

- No, I was not in the field when I worked on this chapter. Scientists are actually not allowed to do new research when working on these reports. But the research has to be reliable. It is a long process to be chosen as a main author in the IPCC. You get a list of different points to include in the report. There are scientists at the IPCC who works on this full time, but for every new report, there are new scientists who come in each time. The topic of “ocean” is fairly new in the IPCC reports, it was first included in the AR5.

What made you interested in climate and the environment and why did you want to do research on this?

Image of Geir Ottersen, from the IMR

- There are some coincidences, for example the fact that I am from the Westcoast of Norway, means that I had a relationship with the ocean and fish, but I did not consider it as a career path before I started working at the Institute of Marine Research. The interest developed gradually in the 90s.

What are you working on at the moment?

- Comprehensive management plans for particularly vulnerable areas in the ocean. We are working towards a new paper to the Norwegian Parliament about the joint effect of different stressors to the particularly vulnerable areas. I am also in the finishing phases of EU-project, where I am charing a part of it. It is called INTAROS - The INTegrated ARctic Observation System*. Weather observations has been a part of the project, using satellites, we are also counting fish and use buoys that stand still to do continuous measurements, but there is a problem with the ice that can cause them to break.

One of the achievements when working on the comprehensive management plans was re-routing of ship traffic, where we recommended that ships that travel long distance routes outside the Norwegian coastline should take a wider circle around the coast. This has to do with the environmental impact it could cause Norway’s coastline if something went wrong. IMO, the International Maritime Organisation, supported this and it was implemented.

What has surprised you the most when working on the IPCC report?

- I was surprised by the glaciological numbers of just how much water that melted from Greenland and the Antarctic. It is hard to estimate how much that will melt, but the effect this has on sea level rise over time scares me.

Illustration from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate of the poles

Illustration from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate of the polar regions. According to the newest science available, we could be headed for a sea level rise of 80 centimeters by the year 2100.

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A week has passed since the interview was conducted, but I still reflect over what Geir said. I find it inspiring that policy makers were listening to environmental advice. The decision of taking a longer route for the long distance marine traffic is one way of safeguarding our coastline. In the climate and environmental movement, there is always room for more wins. This makes it all the more uplifting when climate advice is actually listened to and made into policy. This should be the case in more areas concerning our climate and environment.

I thank Geir Ottersen for the interesting interview, and for helping spread knowledge on the state of the Earth and our oceans.

* According to their website, it is a “European Commission project aiming to help build an efficient integrated Arctic Observation System (iAOS) by extending, improving and unifying existing systems in the different regions of the Arctic”

IPCC report and Norwegian climate election

This week, the IPCC published the first part of the Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. The findings are alarming. The photo I have included shows our world at different temperature scenarios.

As you can see from both the 1,5, 2 and 4 C temperature rise - the warming will be more severe at the poles. It is already known that due to the albedo effect, warming of the poles will increase global warming, as the white surface reflect more heat than dark melted waters.

LUCKILY - at least in Norway, there is going to be a national election on the 13th of September. It is vital that we vote in politicians who take this report seriously and understand the consequences of a warming world.

It is necessary for the world to abandon fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas. Norway is an oil and gas producing nation, that needs to turn of the oil tap and invest more in greener jobs. See the second and third picture from Our World in Data.

The report also states that we still have time - but we need to act now. Not in 15 years and not in 30, but right now. Now is the time to start making the right decisions for our common Earth. We already have the knowledge of what needs to be done. What we lack is political leadership and will to make it happen. So please, if you are Norwegian, please vote for our Earth this election. This is the time for good decisions.

The exciting and fragile Arctic

This week I attended a seminar by the Norwegian Environment Agency and the AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) about the dangers facing the Arctic region, and let me tell you, there are many! To me this fact only emphasises the importance for us to protect it. Even if most of us actually doesn't live in the Arctic, the Arctic serves as a barometer for the rest of the world on how climate change will impact us all. 

Here are a few of the findings that is worth knowing about the Arctic: 

- There are a lot of chemicals that ends up in the Arctic, and now that the ice is melting, we are discovering occurrences of PCB, one of the most dangerous environmental toxins, that was banned in 2005 due to its acute poisoning both for humans and animals. PCB is now resurfacing, most likely due to the ocean currents. 

- The temperature in the Arctic has more than doubled in the Arctic during the last 100 years, which is why you might often hear that the climate change is happening twice as rapidly at the poles. 

- 1/3 of all sea level rice will come from the Arctic region, due to melting of the polar ice caps.

- Between 1961 and 2015, scientist have discovered that the Arctic is getting warmer, wetter, with less and thinner sea ice and less snow. This is affecting the albedo effect; how much sun is reflected back - with a white surface, a lot of the sun is reflected back, but with darker surfaces, as an ocean, the heat is adopted. To illustrate this, look at the drawing underneath. 

- Earlier, there used to be a higher percentage of many year old ice. Now, that percentage has gone down, and one year old ice is more common. This affects life on a molecular level, because there are life living within the ice. This may have grave implications for the ecosystems, that we yet don't know. 

- Introduced species is another threat to the biodiversity. Due to warmed temperature in the water, new species are making its way up in the Arctic. Some of these are taking over the territories to species that have spent a long time adapting to that particular climate. One example is that Atlantic cod has gone up in population, and Polar cod has decreased. 

So, what can be done about this? 

The advice that was given at the conference were these: The Paris agreement is important, but more needs to be done. 

- Marine surveillance needs to be strengthened and we need to be prepared for the unknown.

In the former IPCC reports, the Arctic region has been under-communicated. This needs to change, because the Arctic is a very sensitive region, and as someone said at the seminar - the Arctic is everybody's business. 

I hope this has provided you with some new and interesting input, although this blog post was a more science based one. A lot of exciting things will take place in the Arctic region this summer, so stay tuned for more updates on how to protect the Arctic.