Why you, and why now - the new IPCC synthesis report (2023)

The 20th of March, the UNs climate panel (IPCC) launched their synthesis report on climate change. This is a compilation of the main findings from the reports published between 2018-2022. Climate scientist Jan S. Fuglestvedt, who has also contributed to the reports, held a presentation in Norwegian and presented the main findings.

The IPCC reports concerns the physical climate changes and the effects they have on nature and society, climate adaptation, emission reductions, absorption of greenhouse gases and means of mitigating the effects of climate change. The special reports concerns the 1,5 degree heating target, climate change and land areas and oceans and ice. The synthesis report combines the finding of these and puts them into context.

The IPCC reports concerns the physical climate changes and the effects they have on nature and society, climate adaptation, emission reductions, absorption of greenhouse gases and means of mitigating the effects of climate change. The special reports concerns the 1,5 degree heating target, climate change and land areas and oceans and ice. The synthesis report combines the finding of these and puts them into context.

The current status is that we are already at 1,15 degrees warming.

The first arrow says “"We are here”. The second arrow says “Will be passed within the next 10 years”. The third arrow says “Paris target”, and the fourth arrow says “This is where we are headed”.

This image shows future emission scenarios. Where darker pink and purple colours indicates a higher temperature. In order to not reach those scenarios - three things must happen.

1. Global Co2 emissions must be halved within 2030 to reach the 1,5 degree target.

2. Adaptation. All sectors and systems must adapt and find where they can cut emissions.

3. Financing. Some measures are smarter and more affordable than others. See list below.

To be able to close the gap it will take drastic changes in all sectors and systems.

This graph shows measures under 100 USD per ton CO2 that can be halved within 2030.

The UNs climate panel says that we have what we need to act on the crisis - but the speed needs to increase drastically! The choices we make this decade will affect life on this planet for millenias’s to come.

This is where you come in. Instead of feeling overwhelmed or exhausted by these facts - put your energy into action! Here are five smart ways for you to get an outlet for your climate frustrations/anxiety/numbness etc:

1. Join an organisation - chose one that’s local to you. If you’re under 26, Nature and Youth is a good choice. If you are a student, maybe Spire. Being part of something bigger than yourself will help you channel your concerns into something more concrete, and get an outlet that will help the cause.

2. Express how you feel about the climate. Make art, write poetry, letters to the editor, letters to your local politicians (remember Norwegians - we have an important election coming up in September).

3. Vote. Of course you vote, but this year, and the coming - vote with the graphs above in mind. Vote for a living climate and a living planet, for you and those who will come after you.

4. Talk. Talk with your fellow students, your colleagues, your neighbours, your family, your community. Talk about both your concerns, but also what you both do in your every day life to make it better. We need hope and inspiration.

5. Finally - act. It feels good to contribute physically, so make your own or join a beach clean up event this spring. Make a list each month of 5 things you will do for the environment and climate that month. It might be taking old clothes to recycling, starting to mend your old clothes, making a bee hotel, using more meat free recipes or using the bus instead of your car. The list is endless, be creative with this one.

Be kind to yourself in the process. Combating climate change is a lifestyle that we must all be a part of. Find ways that are sustainable for your life situation. And celebrate your wins along the way. The seeds you plant today will be amazing in the time to come.

Interview with IPCC scientist Geir Ottersen

I was so lucky that I got to interview climate and marine scientist Geir Ottersen from the Institute of Marine Research. In 2019, he was one of the main authors in the IPCC Special report on the oceans and cryosphere, in the chapter “Polar Regions”.

IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Following are some highlights from our conversation; how did you work on your chapter “Polar regions”? Were you out in the field?

- No, I was not in the field when I worked on this chapter. Scientists are actually not allowed to do new research when working on these reports. But the research has to be reliable. It is a long process to be chosen as a main author in the IPCC. You get a list of different points to include in the report. There are scientists at the IPCC who works on this full time, but for every new report, there are new scientists who come in each time. The topic of “ocean” is fairly new in the IPCC reports, it was first included in the AR5.

What made you interested in climate and the environment and why did you want to do research on this?

Image of Geir Ottersen, from the IMR

- There are some coincidences, for example the fact that I am from the Westcoast of Norway, means that I had a relationship with the ocean and fish, but I did not consider it as a career path before I started working at the Institute of Marine Research. The interest developed gradually in the 90s.

What are you working on at the moment?

- Comprehensive management plans for particularly vulnerable areas in the ocean. We are working towards a new paper to the Norwegian Parliament about the joint effect of different stressors to the particularly vulnerable areas. I am also in the finishing phases of EU-project, where I am charing a part of it. It is called INTAROS - The INTegrated ARctic Observation System*. Weather observations has been a part of the project, using satellites, we are also counting fish and use buoys that stand still to do continuous measurements, but there is a problem with the ice that can cause them to break.

One of the achievements when working on the comprehensive management plans was re-routing of ship traffic, where we recommended that ships that travel long distance routes outside the Norwegian coastline should take a wider circle around the coast. This has to do with the environmental impact it could cause Norway’s coastline if something went wrong. IMO, the International Maritime Organisation, supported this and it was implemented.

What has surprised you the most when working on the IPCC report?

- I was surprised by the glaciological numbers of just how much water that melted from Greenland and the Antarctic. It is hard to estimate how much that will melt, but the effect this has on sea level rise over time scares me.

Illustration from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate of the poles

Illustration from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate of the polar regions. According to the newest science available, we could be headed for a sea level rise of 80 centimeters by the year 2100.

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A week has passed since the interview was conducted, but I still reflect over what Geir said. I find it inspiring that policy makers were listening to environmental advice. The decision of taking a longer route for the long distance marine traffic is one way of safeguarding our coastline. In the climate and environmental movement, there is always room for more wins. This makes it all the more uplifting when climate advice is actually listened to and made into policy. This should be the case in more areas concerning our climate and environment.

I thank Geir Ottersen for the interesting interview, and for helping spread knowledge on the state of the Earth and our oceans.

* According to their website, it is a “European Commission project aiming to help build an efficient integrated Arctic Observation System (iAOS) by extending, improving and unifying existing systems in the different regions of the Arctic”

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

Never have I read a more clearly written IPCC report, and never have the scientists behind it been more direct in their plead. Every aspect of what we do to planet Earth matters, be it positive or negative, but what we must realise is that it is all connected and it matters.

In the latest IPCC report, which is the newest climate research available, the scientists are doing their best to have clear formulations and models to show us the current state of our joint home, and give us prospects of what is to come. I find that this report is very reader-friendly, but regardless, I will try to highlight some of the main aspects and also draw attention to how we can understand some of the illustrations.

In this first model, we can see in circle (a) the way the red arrows representing climate change are negatively impacting human society and ecosystems including biodiversity. But we are also given another option, circle (b) which shows us the way to climate resilient development and ecosystem and planetary health. A key outtake here is that when we restore nature and aid biodiversity, it directly impacts both human health, well being, equity and justice to the planet. Images like this is trying to help us understand how interconnected it all really is, and that we can not have one without the other.

In this model (a), the scientists aim is to communicate the level of probability that climate change will impact the different regions of the world and their resources. This is illustrated and explained with the colour coordinates to the right in the image, where dark blue indicates high or very high confidence that climate change will impact for example species living on land in Africa (see the grey headlines at the top). In the second model (b) a minus sign indicates more negative consequences for example see the first row with Africa and water scarcity. This way, when you follow the different columns horizontally, it becomes evident that all aspects of human life as we know it will be affected by climate change, from mental health to displacement of people.

Personally, I find that this clear language makes it just all the more evident that climate considerations needs to be at the foundation for every decision made, be it from politicians or house builders, because every little or small action will have a massive impact on a global scale. It already matters, but the significance of what we do today will increase tenfold. Which is clearly illustrated by this next image:

The horisontal line of this model (a) shows a timeline at the bottom stating the years passing. The vertical line shows the temperature rise. The different colour codes shows the very likely range of temperature rise. To understand the rest of these models (b),(c),(d) and (e), you have to look at the same vertical temperature line and read both the heading and the text at the bottom. For example model (b) shows us a coloured graph of impacts and risk of global warming assuming low or no adaptation to mitigate. You can read the coloured graph from white (undetectable), to yellow (moderate), to red (high) to purple (very high). You can then follow the different temperature rise and read for example that at 2 degrees temperature rise, there will be a very high risk to unique and threatened systems.

This last model is a picture of hope. Even though this model illustrates a path that we have already made more difficult for us to achieve, (see the “missed opportunity” line at the top), it is still possible to achieve the 1,5 degree target goal, and with it be on the path to a climate resilient future. But the model clearly states that the way to this future is by taking into account all the steps of ecosystem stewardship, equity and injustice, inclusion and knowledge diversity into all decisions being made. This is truly key for us to end up at the scenario to the top right with well being, low poverty, ecosystem health, equity and justice, low global warming levels and low risks.

The climate literature is now very clear - we adapt right now, not in 10 years time, because this coming decade will determine how the future on planet Earth will be. Most of us is not climate scientists, but all of us still have a way to make an impact in each of our communities, be it at your school, your workplace, at national level with elections or in your personal life. The sum of all the decisions we take will impact how the graph is pointing. It is not a matter of which actions to take, we must take all the right actions at this point in time. The luxury of time has passed us. It is up to all of us to make the right decisions for the climate.

Source: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.